Tuesday
1
the Bush Administration is responding well to the Wilson scandal. I doubt this will go anywhere.
2
Amazing stories coming from Gauntanamo. Three translators arrested on taking information out of Camp Delta. It is remarkable that the US military seems to have stumbled badly here. I don't know any more than you, but there's a whiff of real scandal here. Has Al Quada reached the detainees in Cuba? If it is possible we are in real trouble. Or is this just desperate men trying to communicate with friends and family? In WW2 Allied troops in Germany's POW camps did the same kind of thing.
3
The recall is entering it's last days. Arnold seems to be on his way to becoming governor. I do hope he can bring the budget crisis to a reasonable end.
More later
David Star@Audiea.com
God awaits us in the kitchen of imagination
Thursday, September 25, 2003
THURSDAY
1
Started Not Far From Here again. This time it's for real. A basic story with a savage ending. Man meets woman in 1999 at a summer camp. They have a sweet one night stand. Adults doing adult things, no complications. They meet again a week later but argue over things that are unrelated to their situation, They drift apart. The man meets a second woman in the middle of all this and he is fascinated by the "Celestial" Photos she sells. The next summer he sees the photo lady again, she is now divorced and they have a casual affair. He sees the other woman several times. They do talk and there's a bit of regret over what seems to have been lost. The summer ends and with it the affair and selling photos. The third summer comes, and the man meets the women again, both want him and he spends three months trying to decide what he wants. The summer ends but he can't let go. Great evil comes and their lives are shattered. A brother is lost and a sister is suddenly forced to see life in a radically different way. The man sees in the sister what he has always suspected. The other woman is wonderful and deserves him, but he can't give himself to both of them.
Not Far From Here has consumed me for almost three years. But now it's ready and I'll write the third and final draft.
I feel wonderful. Life has a glow, I know I'm where I was struggled to be for a long time. Let the final thrill begin. It will take four months. By January 12th 2004 I'll be finished.
Wonderful!
More later.
David Star@Audiea.com
1
Started Not Far From Here again. This time it's for real. A basic story with a savage ending. Man meets woman in 1999 at a summer camp. They have a sweet one night stand. Adults doing adult things, no complications. They meet again a week later but argue over things that are unrelated to their situation, They drift apart. The man meets a second woman in the middle of all this and he is fascinated by the "Celestial" Photos she sells. The next summer he sees the photo lady again, she is now divorced and they have a casual affair. He sees the other woman several times. They do talk and there's a bit of regret over what seems to have been lost. The summer ends and with it the affair and selling photos. The third summer comes, and the man meets the women again, both want him and he spends three months trying to decide what he wants. The summer ends but he can't let go. Great evil comes and their lives are shattered. A brother is lost and a sister is suddenly forced to see life in a radically different way. The man sees in the sister what he has always suspected. The other woman is wonderful and deserves him, but he can't give himself to both of them.
Not Far From Here has consumed me for almost three years. But now it's ready and I'll write the third and final draft.
I feel wonderful. Life has a glow, I know I'm where I was struggled to be for a long time. Let the final thrill begin. It will take four months. By January 12th 2004 I'll be finished.
Wonderful!
More later.
David Star@Audiea.com
Monday, September 22, 2003
Wednesday, September 17, 2003
WEDNESDAY
1
A foolish man, seeking attention came to the recycle center Sunday night and did all he could to bully the Security staff. Then, Tuesday he cynically called the security company and made the usual threats. The Account Rep did exactly as expected, he caved in and the Security Officers take the fall. The bully now has full freedom to abuse as he pleases!
And people wonder why contract security is such a joke?
2
The recall games continue. The Reactionaries are frightened at the prospect of Schwarzenegger winning and taking the party toward the left or worse, Davis' being saved and the wrath of the Dem-crats. The Republicans will loose any which way. They are going to loose in 06 as well as Davis' and the Democrats have two years of portraying them as extremists and a threat to 21st century social progress. Darryl issue will be remembered as a complete disaster. He ruined the California Republican Party by creating a needless circus.
The general public has become weary of the political circus. California is maturing as were the GOP is still chasing liberals and all that. They deserve their fate.
More later
Star@Audiea.com
1
A foolish man, seeking attention came to the recycle center Sunday night and did all he could to bully the Security staff. Then, Tuesday he cynically called the security company and made the usual threats. The Account Rep did exactly as expected, he caved in and the Security Officers take the fall. The bully now has full freedom to abuse as he pleases!
And people wonder why contract security is such a joke?
2
The recall games continue. The Reactionaries are frightened at the prospect of Schwarzenegger winning and taking the party toward the left or worse, Davis' being saved and the wrath of the Dem-crats. The Republicans will loose any which way. They are going to loose in 06 as well as Davis' and the Democrats have two years of portraying them as extremists and a threat to 21st century social progress. Darryl issue will be remembered as a complete disaster. He ruined the California Republican Party by creating a needless circus.
The general public has become weary of the political circus. California is maturing as were the GOP is still chasing liberals and all that. They deserve their fate.
More later
Star@Audiea.com
Friday, September 12, 2003
FRIDAY
Read it and weep!
A special speech to the nation
Jon Carroll
Wednesday, September 10, 2003
©2003 San Francisco Chronicle | Feedback
My fellow Americans: I come before you today to ask for all the money in your wallet, your checking account and your 401(k). And do you have one of those spare change jars on top of the dresser? I'd like that too.
I am planning to spend $100 zillion to fight international terrorism in Iraq -- and all this without raising taxes. I am therefore asking Americans to make a sacrifice. I am asking them to support their aging relatives, because I'm not going to have any money to fund Social Security right now. Or Medicaid.
Why? Because fighting terrorism is job one.
I am not asking you to do anything I would not do. Already I am sending money home to my mother and father every week. I am also supporting an impoverished Chilean general in exile. It's the least I can do.
Because many people do not have elderly relatives, I am today asking for the creation of a new Department of Old People. All Americans will be assigned their very own old person.
In addition, every American will get his or her own veteran. Veterans benefits are so pathetic anyway we might as well just eliminate them. Please remember the great sacrifice these men and women made for their country. Do you have a spare room in your home? A veteran would like to live there.
Will this be difficult for some? Of course it will. But I ask you to remember three important things about freedom: Sept. 11, Sept. 11 and Sept. 11.
The peace in Iraq is going just as we planned. The escalating violence is exactly on schedule. Our friends in Syria and Iran have allowed terrorists to flow freely into Iraq from their nations. Our friends in Saudi Arabia continue to send them money. We knew what we were doing all along, even if we didn't know exactly what we were doing.
I like to think of Iraq as a kind of flypaper. We lure all the internationalist terrorists there, and then we kill them. I have not revealed this plan before, because it would seem that I am using American soldiers as bait.
I am therefore authorizing Secretary Powell, who I believe is still the secretary of state although I have not checked recently, to ask the United Nations for a multilateral force of peacekeepers who can be used as bait. I dream of a world in which people of all nations, Poles and Turks, Pakistanis and Canadians, can be slaughtered by international terrorists in an oil-rich foreign country.
We have always supported the United Nations, even when we pretended to disdain the United Nations in order to fool Saddam Hussein. Saddam Hussein is on the run, cowering like some sniveling rat in a Iraqi slum that we are about to locate. So our plan worked, and Kofi Annan and I had a good laugh about that just last week.
We will not waver in our commitment to make a house-to-house search for terrorists in a place 19 time zones away. Sure, there will be casualties. I am authorizing all my commanders on the ground to say, with me: Sept. 11, Sept. 11 and Sept. 11.
Our battle for freedom is already paying significant dividends. Halliburton stock, for instance, is just skyrocketing. I urge you all to invest your dividends because, believe you me, we're going to be destroying infrastructure as fast as we can rebuild it. This unprecedented breakthrough in supply-side economics will make America even more prosperous.
Certainly, we have been through some tough times. And let me just say in response to that: Bill Clinton, Bill Clinton and Bill Clinton. And there will be tough times ahead. And let me say in response to that: Sept. 11, Sept. 11 and Sept. 11.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I regret that I cannot tell you how I am going to spend your money. Trust me.
Lavender's blue, dilly-dilly, lavender's green; when I am king, dilly-dilly, you shall be jcarroll@sfchronicle.com.
©2003 San Francisco Chronicle | Feedback
More later
David Star@Audiea.com
Read it and weep!
A special speech to the nation
Jon Carroll
Wednesday, September 10, 2003
©2003 San Francisco Chronicle | Feedback
My fellow Americans: I come before you today to ask for all the money in your wallet, your checking account and your 401(k). And do you have one of those spare change jars on top of the dresser? I'd like that too.
I am planning to spend $100 zillion to fight international terrorism in Iraq -- and all this without raising taxes. I am therefore asking Americans to make a sacrifice. I am asking them to support their aging relatives, because I'm not going to have any money to fund Social Security right now. Or Medicaid.
Why? Because fighting terrorism is job one.
I am not asking you to do anything I would not do. Already I am sending money home to my mother and father every week. I am also supporting an impoverished Chilean general in exile. It's the least I can do.
Because many people do not have elderly relatives, I am today asking for the creation of a new Department of Old People. All Americans will be assigned their very own old person.
In addition, every American will get his or her own veteran. Veterans benefits are so pathetic anyway we might as well just eliminate them. Please remember the great sacrifice these men and women made for their country. Do you have a spare room in your home? A veteran would like to live there.
Will this be difficult for some? Of course it will. But I ask you to remember three important things about freedom: Sept. 11, Sept. 11 and Sept. 11.
The peace in Iraq is going just as we planned. The escalating violence is exactly on schedule. Our friends in Syria and Iran have allowed terrorists to flow freely into Iraq from their nations. Our friends in Saudi Arabia continue to send them money. We knew what we were doing all along, even if we didn't know exactly what we were doing.
I like to think of Iraq as a kind of flypaper. We lure all the internationalist terrorists there, and then we kill them. I have not revealed this plan before, because it would seem that I am using American soldiers as bait.
I am therefore authorizing Secretary Powell, who I believe is still the secretary of state although I have not checked recently, to ask the United Nations for a multilateral force of peacekeepers who can be used as bait. I dream of a world in which people of all nations, Poles and Turks, Pakistanis and Canadians, can be slaughtered by international terrorists in an oil-rich foreign country.
We have always supported the United Nations, even when we pretended to disdain the United Nations in order to fool Saddam Hussein. Saddam Hussein is on the run, cowering like some sniveling rat in a Iraqi slum that we are about to locate. So our plan worked, and Kofi Annan and I had a good laugh about that just last week.
We will not waver in our commitment to make a house-to-house search for terrorists in a place 19 time zones away. Sure, there will be casualties. I am authorizing all my commanders on the ground to say, with me: Sept. 11, Sept. 11 and Sept. 11.
Our battle for freedom is already paying significant dividends. Halliburton stock, for instance, is just skyrocketing. I urge you all to invest your dividends because, believe you me, we're going to be destroying infrastructure as fast as we can rebuild it. This unprecedented breakthrough in supply-side economics will make America even more prosperous.
Certainly, we have been through some tough times. And let me just say in response to that: Bill Clinton, Bill Clinton and Bill Clinton. And there will be tough times ahead. And let me say in response to that: Sept. 11, Sept. 11 and Sept. 11.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I regret that I cannot tell you how I am going to spend your money. Trust me.
Lavender's blue, dilly-dilly, lavender's green; when I am king, dilly-dilly, you shall be jcarroll@sfchronicle.com.
©2003 San Francisco Chronicle | Feedback
More later
David Star@Audiea.com
Tuesday, September 09, 2003
TUESDAY
1
The Bush Administration as usual has announced it's plans in a either or stance, insulting everyone who might have honest questions or doubts. The cynical method of simply telling congress to approve eighty-seven billion dollars for Iraq with little regard to just what the true cost and eventual outcome may be. The American public is not being given a detailed report and the President implies by his manor that to ask any questions is to be a "Liberal" and we all know what those losers are about.
The United States abused it's allies in Europe and as expected by adults was that the US would get bogged down in a guerilla war and cry for help.
In a few months Democrats will start agitating for detailed reports on expenditures in Iraq and the Bushies will resist as long as they can. But as it happens every time the country will finally get fed up and the real investigations will began and in 04 the Bush presidency will start to unravel. The big question will be: can Bush and his arrogant business friends keep the game in their control until after election day or will they flub it in the late summer and go down to defeat.
The American people are not fools, they will get wise and act on it soon enough. If Bush is re-elected, he will regret it as his second term is one spending scandal after another and the War comes home to ruin his place in history.
More later
David Star@Audiea.com
1
The Bush Administration as usual has announced it's plans in a either or stance, insulting everyone who might have honest questions or doubts. The cynical method of simply telling congress to approve eighty-seven billion dollars for Iraq with little regard to just what the true cost and eventual outcome may be. The American public is not being given a detailed report and the President implies by his manor that to ask any questions is to be a "Liberal" and we all know what those losers are about.
The United States abused it's allies in Europe and as expected by adults was that the US would get bogged down in a guerilla war and cry for help.
In a few months Democrats will start agitating for detailed reports on expenditures in Iraq and the Bushies will resist as long as they can. But as it happens every time the country will finally get fed up and the real investigations will began and in 04 the Bush presidency will start to unravel. The big question will be: can Bush and his arrogant business friends keep the game in their control until after election day or will they flub it in the late summer and go down to defeat.
The American people are not fools, they will get wise and act on it soon enough. If Bush is re-elected, he will regret it as his second term is one spending scandal after another and the War comes home to ruin his place in history.
More later
David Star@Audiea.com
Sunday, September 07, 2003
SUNDAY
The United States is in the process of seeking an exit strategy for Iraq. Here is a classic example of great power hubris. A smug mentality of supremacy and the inability to grasp the political reality of the modern era. Nevertheless,
GW Bush deserve substantial credit for going after Al Quada and the sinister and brutish Saddam Hussein. Good intentions created by questionable motive. The United States has attempted world police action by itself and has created planetary animus. Why should anyone bail us out? Why should the Iraqis allow all these nations under UN authority come and reduce them to consumers? Iraq has been abused by all sides, Now it is time to reconstruct the place and to treat the citizens with justice that is real. The Middle East has become a battle ground not for religious clarity but economic exploitation. The West seeks to sell them everything the east seeks to use them as pawns in the religious terror wars. Why not allow the Iraqis to decide their future? The United States will not be admired or respected for seeking simple justice, but such action will spare us a few years of Iraqi hatred and future terrorism.
In the 2070s historians will earn their keep recounting decades of violence and false promise. Think about what's coming! Dictators fronting democracy and slaughtering their enemies in secret. Baghdad turned into a twardy fast food bizarre and the whole country prostituted to whom ever has the muscle and audacity to run the place. Eventually a ruthless right wing thug will use personality to seduce the poor and stage a peasant revolution. They will end up in meager jobs with less pay and in time another revolution, foreign intervention.
Iraq will be the 21st Centuries problem child, unless we can see the future and stop it. Take the time to give the place a rest from turmoil and find it's own future and respect the Iraqis enough to allow it to happen.
In am not a dreamer or a cynic here. I know enough of history to grasp that much of what happens does so because of no planning but random circumstance and convoluted agendas all in flux. Can't we try to find a way to stop the cycle? GW Bush will never be admired and he should not even bother. Just do the right thing and have the private satisfaction that you and God know what you did. That's enough!
David Star@Audiea.com
The United States is in the process of seeking an exit strategy for Iraq. Here is a classic example of great power hubris. A smug mentality of supremacy and the inability to grasp the political reality of the modern era. Nevertheless,
GW Bush deserve substantial credit for going after Al Quada and the sinister and brutish Saddam Hussein. Good intentions created by questionable motive. The United States has attempted world police action by itself and has created planetary animus. Why should anyone bail us out? Why should the Iraqis allow all these nations under UN authority come and reduce them to consumers? Iraq has been abused by all sides, Now it is time to reconstruct the place and to treat the citizens with justice that is real. The Middle East has become a battle ground not for religious clarity but economic exploitation. The West seeks to sell them everything the east seeks to use them as pawns in the religious terror wars. Why not allow the Iraqis to decide their future? The United States will not be admired or respected for seeking simple justice, but such action will spare us a few years of Iraqi hatred and future terrorism.
In the 2070s historians will earn their keep recounting decades of violence and false promise. Think about what's coming! Dictators fronting democracy and slaughtering their enemies in secret. Baghdad turned into a twardy fast food bizarre and the whole country prostituted to whom ever has the muscle and audacity to run the place. Eventually a ruthless right wing thug will use personality to seduce the poor and stage a peasant revolution. They will end up in meager jobs with less pay and in time another revolution, foreign intervention.
Iraq will be the 21st Centuries problem child, unless we can see the future and stop it. Take the time to give the place a rest from turmoil and find it's own future and respect the Iraqis enough to allow it to happen.
In am not a dreamer or a cynic here. I know enough of history to grasp that much of what happens does so because of no planning but random circumstance and convoluted agendas all in flux. Can't we try to find a way to stop the cycle? GW Bush will never be admired and he should not even bother. Just do the right thing and have the private satisfaction that you and God know what you did. That's enough!
David Star@Audiea.com
Wednesday, September 03, 2003
WEDNESDAY
1
Here is a excellent article from the Sunday Ny Times.
How Vulnerable Is Bush?
The Campaign Begins
Howard Dean versus George Bush? It's a scenario to make a pundit salivate. And for the first time it seems vaguely plausible. Far more plausible than an actual Dean victory, of course. And Dean's more established rivals, John Kerry of Massachusetts, Dick Gephardt of Iowa, former vice-president nominee, Joe Lieberman, and lurking in the wings, Hillary, could eventually eclipse the peppy populist. But the sense of drift in the Bush administration's foreign and domestic policy, and the body-count in Iraq have all eroded George Bush's margin of error in the coming political season. The White House has been predicting a close election for a long time. Now it seems less like expectations-management and more like insight.
Bush, in an elegant irony, is vulnerable above all on Iraq. No, there's not some Vietnam-style groundswell of opposition. No, the anti-war movement hasn't won the debate. It may even turn out that Bush has the last laugh on the WMD issue, when WMD inspector David Kay presents his report later in September. (The impact of a Saddam killing or capture would also, in one stroke, resuscitate positive reviews of Bush's war-management.) But the public has become convinced, thanks to relentlessly negative media coverage, that the transition to democracy in Iraq is failing. In a Gallup poll last week, 54 percent agreed with the proposition that the Bush administration does not have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq. It's not that Americans cannot endure casualties; it's that they object to casualties if the operation isn't working or seems likely to fail. And on that measure, the president clearly hasn't succeeded. He hasn't managed to persuade the country that the complex and precarious task in Iraq is heading in the right direction. If things deteriorate, he will be personally and directly blamed. As he should be.
In this respect, Bush's problems with re-election are the direct reverse of his father. The first president Bush won a quick and easy victory in Iraq but then withdrew from the battle (disastrously, as it later turned out). His stratospheric poll ratings in the war then collapsed under the anemic economic recovery of 1991. His son, in contrast, is seeing the foreign policy morass through (with all its hazards) and has done absolutely everything he can to keep the economy afloat. He has borrowed and spent federal dollars in a Keynesian frenzy that would have made Richard Nixon blush. History might one day judge that, given the deflationary dangers of the world economy at the turn of the millennium, this extravagance was warranted. Or it might judge that this president mortgaged his country's fiscal future in order to boost his own chances for re-election. But either way, there seems little doubt that the strategy is working. Stiff increases in domestic discretionary spending, huge new entitlements, inflated agricultural subsidies, mammoth hikes in military spending (the increase in defense spending in the second quarter was the biggest jump since 1951) have all meant a huge boost to demand. The second quarter duly saw growth of 3.1 percent (revised upward last week from a previous 2.4 percent). The stock markets are back. Productivity is rising. And there's still over a year for all this to translate into new jobs.
Will this be enough? Maybe. But maybe not. One of the problems is the war on terror in the second phase. If another major terrorist attack hits the mainland, this administration will now be held to account for lapses in security. If such an attack is foiled, and the current domestic peace prevails, then the public's attention moves away from terrorism and they criticize the administration for its economic policies or handling of Iraq. Waging a vital but nebulous war on terror turns out not to be such a political win-win. In fact, it's coming close to a lose-lose. Bush has problems if he wins (the public moves on) and if he suffers occasional defeats (the public blames him). He cannot be blamed for this, of course - although his tacky and hubristic air-craft carrier landing was a huge p.r. error. But it doesn't make his political fortunes any rosier.
But Bush still has the trust issue in a way that Tony Blair increasingly doesn't. Most Americans like their president, even when they disagree with him, the way they liked Reagan and Eisenhower. In Texas, W won re-election as governor handily, despite a mixed record. And with grim news this summer, and constant attacks from the left, Bush's approval ratings have remained solid at around or just below 60 percent. That's a very healthy figure, and it hasn't budged since the spring. In fact, the numbers are beginning to drift toward Bush's pre-9/11 high 50s - still within easy re-election margins. Anyone who easily discounts Bush's hold on public esteem and affection is a political fool.
Can the Democrats actually hope to oust him? I'm not dumb enough to predict such a thing at this stage - but the huge story of the summer has been the emergence of Vermont governor Howard Dean to the political highground. He has been campaigning across the country in the last few months and has been greeted by massive crowds everywhere he goes. In New Hampshire, which holds the critical first primary, he is ahead of his nearest rival, John Kerry, by 37 percent to 18. National polls of Democrats show him in the 15 - 20 percent range, along with Gephardt, Kerry and Lieberman. In money terms, he has destroyed the opposition. In the second quarter, his campaign raised a whopping $10.3 million - more money at this stage in the race than any non-incumbent Democrat ever. He's running television spots across the country in a manner that is more reminiscent of the final stages of a campaign than the summer before it really begins. He is the early star of the race - the darling of the prosperous, white Democratic activist base.
And critically, he has shifted his message on Iraq. He is now trying to outflank the president on sending more troops and more money to the Iraqi reconstruction. He used his opposition to the war to win over the left; and now he is using his commitment to the rebuilding of Iraq as a means to regain the center. It's a deft piece of politicking. And by all accounts, the relentless campaigning has helped him improve his stump style and political manner. I have no idea if he will emerge as the candidate. But I do know that no other candidate has excited as much interest, energy and money in this race so far.
Except one. In the last hazy days of August, rumors began flying once again about Hillary. Scared that Bush might be vulnerable and that a Democrat might win - potentially locking her out of the presidency until 2012 - Hillary Rodham Clinton's aides are apparently due to meet September 6 to review their options for 2004. Hillary versus Bush? This Labor Day weekend, it's a scenario to make a pundit drool.
August 31, 2003, Sunday Times.
copyright © 2003, 2003 Andrew Sullivan
MORE LATER
David Star@Audiea.com
1
Here is a excellent article from the Sunday Ny Times.
How Vulnerable Is Bush?
The Campaign Begins
Howard Dean versus George Bush? It's a scenario to make a pundit salivate. And for the first time it seems vaguely plausible. Far more plausible than an actual Dean victory, of course. And Dean's more established rivals, John Kerry of Massachusetts, Dick Gephardt of Iowa, former vice-president nominee, Joe Lieberman, and lurking in the wings, Hillary, could eventually eclipse the peppy populist. But the sense of drift in the Bush administration's foreign and domestic policy, and the body-count in Iraq have all eroded George Bush's margin of error in the coming political season. The White House has been predicting a close election for a long time. Now it seems less like expectations-management and more like insight.
Bush, in an elegant irony, is vulnerable above all on Iraq. No, there's not some Vietnam-style groundswell of opposition. No, the anti-war movement hasn't won the debate. It may even turn out that Bush has the last laugh on the WMD issue, when WMD inspector David Kay presents his report later in September. (The impact of a Saddam killing or capture would also, in one stroke, resuscitate positive reviews of Bush's war-management.) But the public has become convinced, thanks to relentlessly negative media coverage, that the transition to democracy in Iraq is failing. In a Gallup poll last week, 54 percent agreed with the proposition that the Bush administration does not have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq. It's not that Americans cannot endure casualties; it's that they object to casualties if the operation isn't working or seems likely to fail. And on that measure, the president clearly hasn't succeeded. He hasn't managed to persuade the country that the complex and precarious task in Iraq is heading in the right direction. If things deteriorate, he will be personally and directly blamed. As he should be.
In this respect, Bush's problems with re-election are the direct reverse of his father. The first president Bush won a quick and easy victory in Iraq but then withdrew from the battle (disastrously, as it later turned out). His stratospheric poll ratings in the war then collapsed under the anemic economic recovery of 1991. His son, in contrast, is seeing the foreign policy morass through (with all its hazards) and has done absolutely everything he can to keep the economy afloat. He has borrowed and spent federal dollars in a Keynesian frenzy that would have made Richard Nixon blush. History might one day judge that, given the deflationary dangers of the world economy at the turn of the millennium, this extravagance was warranted. Or it might judge that this president mortgaged his country's fiscal future in order to boost his own chances for re-election. But either way, there seems little doubt that the strategy is working. Stiff increases in domestic discretionary spending, huge new entitlements, inflated agricultural subsidies, mammoth hikes in military spending (the increase in defense spending in the second quarter was the biggest jump since 1951) have all meant a huge boost to demand. The second quarter duly saw growth of 3.1 percent (revised upward last week from a previous 2.4 percent). The stock markets are back. Productivity is rising. And there's still over a year for all this to translate into new jobs.
Will this be enough? Maybe. But maybe not. One of the problems is the war on terror in the second phase. If another major terrorist attack hits the mainland, this administration will now be held to account for lapses in security. If such an attack is foiled, and the current domestic peace prevails, then the public's attention moves away from terrorism and they criticize the administration for its economic policies or handling of Iraq. Waging a vital but nebulous war on terror turns out not to be such a political win-win. In fact, it's coming close to a lose-lose. Bush has problems if he wins (the public moves on) and if he suffers occasional defeats (the public blames him). He cannot be blamed for this, of course - although his tacky and hubristic air-craft carrier landing was a huge p.r. error. But it doesn't make his political fortunes any rosier.
But Bush still has the trust issue in a way that Tony Blair increasingly doesn't. Most Americans like their president, even when they disagree with him, the way they liked Reagan and Eisenhower. In Texas, W won re-election as governor handily, despite a mixed record. And with grim news this summer, and constant attacks from the left, Bush's approval ratings have remained solid at around or just below 60 percent. That's a very healthy figure, and it hasn't budged since the spring. In fact, the numbers are beginning to drift toward Bush's pre-9/11 high 50s - still within easy re-election margins. Anyone who easily discounts Bush's hold on public esteem and affection is a political fool.
Can the Democrats actually hope to oust him? I'm not dumb enough to predict such a thing at this stage - but the huge story of the summer has been the emergence of Vermont governor Howard Dean to the political highground. He has been campaigning across the country in the last few months and has been greeted by massive crowds everywhere he goes. In New Hampshire, which holds the critical first primary, he is ahead of his nearest rival, John Kerry, by 37 percent to 18. National polls of Democrats show him in the 15 - 20 percent range, along with Gephardt, Kerry and Lieberman. In money terms, he has destroyed the opposition. In the second quarter, his campaign raised a whopping $10.3 million - more money at this stage in the race than any non-incumbent Democrat ever. He's running television spots across the country in a manner that is more reminiscent of the final stages of a campaign than the summer before it really begins. He is the early star of the race - the darling of the prosperous, white Democratic activist base.
And critically, he has shifted his message on Iraq. He is now trying to outflank the president on sending more troops and more money to the Iraqi reconstruction. He used his opposition to the war to win over the left; and now he is using his commitment to the rebuilding of Iraq as a means to regain the center. It's a deft piece of politicking. And by all accounts, the relentless campaigning has helped him improve his stump style and political manner. I have no idea if he will emerge as the candidate. But I do know that no other candidate has excited as much interest, energy and money in this race so far.
Except one. In the last hazy days of August, rumors began flying once again about Hillary. Scared that Bush might be vulnerable and that a Democrat might win - potentially locking her out of the presidency until 2012 - Hillary Rodham Clinton's aides are apparently due to meet September 6 to review their options for 2004. Hillary versus Bush? This Labor Day weekend, it's a scenario to make a pundit drool.
August 31, 2003, Sunday Times.
copyright © 2003, 2003 Andrew Sullivan
MORE LATER
David Star@Audiea.com
Monday, September 01, 2003
MONDAY
1
No Iraq today.
2
I've been looking at Laptop computers. I have an IBM 570 and it is a dream machine, except that it does not play DVD very well. It never was intended to. So I have been cruising eBay and looking at auctions. I am impressed at how anything less than 1.2Ghtz is selling for nothing and all these over powered 2 and 3 GHTZ units are selling fast. I assume it's the super imagery and deluxe sound. I do understand. Except for DVD occasionally stopping and the smaller picture, two thirds of my actual screen, I love my IBM 570. It is slimline and looks great. A P2/366 Dated to say the least!
3
Mars was visible last night at the recycling center intermittently I watched that bright light, easily seen through the urban glare! I am impressed and regret that I haven't been out side the city to really see Mars among the many stars.
What I would give to cruise the solar system!
Oh well, it's Labor Day! Have fun!
More later
David Star@Audiea.com
1
No Iraq today.
2
I've been looking at Laptop computers. I have an IBM 570 and it is a dream machine, except that it does not play DVD very well. It never was intended to. So I have been cruising eBay and looking at auctions. I am impressed at how anything less than 1.2Ghtz is selling for nothing and all these over powered 2 and 3 GHTZ units are selling fast. I assume it's the super imagery and deluxe sound. I do understand. Except for DVD occasionally stopping and the smaller picture, two thirds of my actual screen, I love my IBM 570. It is slimline and looks great. A P2/366 Dated to say the least!
3
Mars was visible last night at the recycling center intermittently I watched that bright light, easily seen through the urban glare! I am impressed and regret that I haven't been out side the city to really see Mars among the many stars.
What I would give to cruise the solar system!
Oh well, it's Labor Day! Have fun!
More later
David Star@Audiea.com
